קריסת הפסקת האש מביאה עמה הסלמה מאסיבית

היום ה-132 של מבצע "אריה שואג" הפציע לצלילי הרעם הברור של הפסקת אש השוכנת בהריסותיה. ב-9 ביולי 2026 אישר פיקוד המרכז של ארצות הברית (CENTCOM) גל שני והרסני של תקיפות מדויקות נגד כ-תשעים מטרות צבאיות איראניות, ובכך עלה סך האתרים שהושמדו בשטח איראן ללמעלה מ-170 בתוך 48 שעות. הנשיא דונלד טראמפ, שעזב את ועידת נאט"ו בטורקיה תחת אמצעי אבטחה חסרי תקדים בעקבות מזימת התנקשות איראנית שנחשפה על ידי המודיעין הישראלי, הכריז כי הפסקת האש עם טהראן היא באופן סופי "נגמרה". המתקפה המופקרת של הרפובליקה האסלאמית על מכליות מסחריות במצר הורמוז — שהיוותה את הטריגר לסחרור הנוכחי — הובילה כעת להשלכות המאיימות לעצב מחדש את הנוף האסטרטגי כולו במזרח התיכון.

שני גלי הרס: פיקוד המרכז האמריקאי מכה בעוצמה באיראן

שרשרת האירועים שהגדירה את היום ה-132 החלה ביום הקודם, ה-8 ביולי, כאשר פיקוד המרכז האמריקאי שיגר תקיפות נגד יותר משמונים מטרות צבאיות איראניות, בתגובה ישירה למה שהפנטגון הגדיר כ-"הפרה ברורה ומסוכנת של הפסקת האש" — מתקפתה של איראן על שלוש מכליות מסחריות שחצו את מצר הורמוז. מתקפה זו על נתיבי שיט אזרחיים, עורק חיים של סחר האנרגיה העולמי, חצתה כל קו אדום אפשרי והעניקה לוושינגטון את הלגיטימציה המלאה לתגובה צבאית מוחצת.

ביום רביעי, ה-9 ביולי, הונחת הפטיש השני. פיקוד המרכז אישר תקיפות על כ-90 מטרות נוספות, כאשר הפעם הורחב בנק המטרות כדי לכלול מערכות הגנה אווירית, מתקני אחסון של טילים וכטב"מים, יכולות ימיות, נכסי מעקב חופיים ותשתיות לוגיסטיקה צבאיות. היקפה של רשימת המטרות משקף אסטרטגיה אמריקאית מכוונת לשחוק באופן שיטתי את יכולתה של איראן להקרין כוח במפרץ הפרסי — משימה העולה בקנה אחד בדיוק עם היעדים שישראל חותרת אליהם מאז פתחה במבצע "אריה שואג" ב-28 בפברואר 2026. ב-10 ביולי, תקיפה אמריקאית פגעה ב-קישור מסילת הרכבת של איראן לסין ולרוסיה, ובכך פגעה במסדרון קריטי לעקיפת סנקציות אשר קיים את מכונת המלחמה של טהראן לאורך כל העימות.

במקביל, איראן טענה כי תקיפות פגעו באזורים דרומיים של המדינה ב-10 ביולי, אך ארצות הברית הכחישה כל קשר למתקפות הספציפיות הללו. ייחוס התקיפה נותר רשמית ללא אישור, אם כי החתימה המבצעית מצביעה בבירור על פעולה של חיל האוויר הישראלי — אפשרות המדגישה את התיאום המבצעי המעמיק בשטח בין ירושלים לוושינגטון, בעוד שתי המדינות מנהלות מערכות סימולטניות נגד התשתית הצבאית של הרפובליקה האסלאמית.

טהראן משתוללת: משמרות המהפכה תוקפים בסיסים אמריקאיים

משמרות המהפכה האסלאמית לא ספגו את המכות הללו בשתיקה. ב-9 ביולי הודיעו משמרות המהפכה כי קיימו מבצע משולב של טילים וכטב"מים המכוון נגד מתקנים צבאיים של ארה"ב בשלושה מיקומים: בנדר סלמאן בחוף המפרץ של איראן, מפקדת הצי החמישי של ארה"ב במחוז הימי החמישי בבחריין, ובסיס חיל האוויר עלי אל-סאלם בכווית. טהראן טענה בנוסף כי הפילה כטב"ם אמריקאי מסוג MQ-9 ריפר אשר ניסה לכאורה להתערב במבצע. יש להדגיש כי טענות אלו נותרו ללא אישור מצד פיקוד המרכז של ארה"ב או רשויות צבאיות של בעלות הברית, ויש להתייחס אליהן בספקנות הראויה לכל הצהרות שדה הקרב של משמרות המהפכה.

מה שאינו מוטל בספק הוא עמדתו הנואשת ההולכת וגוברת של המשטר. החלטתה של איראן לתקוף נתיבי שיט מסחריים — המעשה עצמו שהצית את התגובה האמריקאית ההרסנית הזו — חושפת משטר שמיצה את אפשרויות ההרתעה הקונבנציונליות שלו ופונה לטרור כלכלי בנתיב המים האסטרטגי החשוב ביותר בעולם. דיווחים מצביעים על כך שהשיט דרך מצר הורמוז נעצר לחלוטין, דבר המאיים על שוקי האנרגיה העולמיים ברגע שבו הכלכלה העולמית הכי פחות יכולה להרשות לעצמה שיבושים. במקביל, על פי הדיווחים טהראן מאיצה את תנועתם של 11 מיליון חביות נפט, ככל הנראה בניסיון לחסל עתודות בטרם תקיפות נוספות של הקואליציה יהפכו את תשתית הייצוא שלה לבלתי שמישה.

מזימת ההתנקשות: המודיעין הישראלי מוכיח עצמו כחיוני מאין כמוהו

אולי הגילוי בעל ההשלכות המשמעותיות ביותר ביום ה-132 היה החשיפה כי ישראל חלקה מודיעין עם ארצות הברית המזהיר מפני מזימה איראנית חדשה להתנקש בחייו של הנשיא טראמפ. המידע, שדווח לראשונה ב-וול סטריט ג'ורנל ואושר על ידי CNN ו-פוקס ניוז, היה גורם ישיר לנקיטת אמצעי אבטחה יוצאי דופן סביב עזיבתו של טראמפ את פסגת נאט"ו בטורקיה, שם עלה הנשיא למטוס ה"אייר פורס 1" הישן יותר כצעד מכוון של "הסחת דעת והטעיה".

"אני מספר אחת ברשימת החיסול של איראן." — הנשיא דונלד טראמפ, 9 ביולי 2026

מנהל התקשורת של הבית הלבן, סטיבן צ'ונג, אישר את אמצעי האבטחה והצהיר כי הממשל משתמש ב-"כל כלי שברשותנו כדי לטפל באיומים הללו". הפרק הזה ממחיש שתי מציאויות בו-זמנית. ראשית, שקמפיין הטרור בחסות המדינה של המשטר האיראני מגיע לדרגים הגבוהים ביותר של הממשל האמריקאי — עובדה המוחקת לחלוטין כל שריד של העמדת פנים כאילו טהראן היא שותפה רציונלית למשא ומתן. שנית, שמערך המודיעין של ישראל נותר נכס אסטרטגי שאין לו תחליף עבור ארצות הברית, ומספק את סוג המודיעין המבצעי ומציל החיים שאף בעלת ברית אחרת באזור אינה יכולה להשתוות אליו.

מזימת ההתנקשות מוסיפה גם הקשר קריטי לאזהרה נפרדת שהועלתה ב-9 ביולי על ידי מושל פלורידה לשעבר, ג'ב בוש, שהתריע בפומבי כי קובה מחזיקה בצי של כטב"מי התאבדות איראניים, ובכך עורר דאגה לגבי יכולות הפרוקסי של משמרות המהפכה המגיעות עד לחצי הכדור המערבי עצמו. זרועותיה של תשתית הטרור האיראנית אינן מוגבלות למזרח התיכון בלבד — הן מגיעות לכל מקום שבו שליחי המשטר ובעלי בריתו מעניקים להן מקלט.

קריסה דיפלומטית והדרך שלפנינו

הכרזתו של הנשיא טראמפ כי הפסקת האש "נגמרה" נמסרה בישירות האופיינית לו, אך שיקפה חישוב אסטרטגי המשותף לכלל מוסדות הביטחון הלאומי של ארה"ב וישראל. "אני לא רוצה להתעסק איתם יותר. הם חלאות", קבע הנשיא. "מבחינתי, זה פשוט בזבוז זמן להתעסק איתם". 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He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He He הציע כי איראן "אינה ראויה לעסקה", הצהרה שסוגרת למעשה את הערוץ הדיפלומטי לעתיד הנראה לעין ומאותתת כי המערכה הצבאית תמשיך להתעצם.

בידודה הדיפלומטי של איראן העמיק עוד יותר כאשר משרד החוץ שלה השתלח בנאט"ו, והאשים את מזכ"ל הברית בחשיפת "שותפות הפשע המכוונת" של אירופה בתקיפות האמריקאיות. טהראן גינתה במקביל את דיוני נאט"ו על אבטחת השיט במצר הורמוז כ-"בעלי מניעים פוליטיים" — התנגדות מגוחכת לחלוטין בהתחשב בכך שהמתקפה של איראן עצמה על נתיבי השיט המסחריים היא שיצרה את המשבר. התפרצויות הזעם הדיפלומטיות של המשטר רק מחזקות את הרושם של ממשלה שאיבדה שליטה על סולם ההסלמה שעליו בחרה לטפס.

בחזית הצפונית של ישראל, התפתחות בעלת חשיבות פוטנציאלית נרשמה כאשר לבנון אותתה על פתיחות לשיחות עם ישראל בנוגע לעימות המתמשך עם חיזבאללה. אם מדובר ביוזמה אמיתית, הרי שזהו אות להרגעת הרוחות אשר עשוי לאפשר לירושלים לרכז משאבים צבאיים ומודיעיניים גדולים עוד יותר בזירה האיראנית — בדיוק סוג המיקוד האסטרטגי שמבצע "אריה שואג" נועד להשיג.

היום ה-132: החומות סוגרות על המשטר

השורה התחתונה ביום ה-132 ברורה לחלוטין. הפסקת האש שהשהתה לזמן קצר את מעשי האיבה נופצה לרסיסים עקב התוקפנות של איראן עצמה, וההשלכות הצבאיות על המשטר היו קטסטרופליות. למעלה מ-170 מטרות הושמדו בתוך 48 שעות, מסדרונות לוגיסטיים חיוניים נקטעו, יכולות ימיות והגנה אווירית נשחקו, ותשתיות ייצוא הנפט נמצאות תחת איום קיומי — וכל זאת בשעה שמזימות ההתנקשות של טהראן נגד נשיא אמריקאי מכהן נחשפות על ידי המודיעין הישראלי בזמן אמת. התיאום האסטרטגי בין ירושלים לוושינגטון מעולם לא היה חלק יותר, ומעולם לא הייתה הבהירות המוסרית של מערכה זו כה ברורה.

מבצע "אריה שואג" נכנס ליומו ה-133 כאשר המשטר האיראני מבודד יותר, שחוק יותר ונואש יותר מכל נקודת זמן מאז ה-28 בפברואר. בחירתו של המשטר לתקוף שיט אזרחי ולתכנן רצח של ראש מדינה אישרה את מה שישראל ובעלות בריתה טוענות מזה זמן רב: אין מדובר בממשלה שניתן להידבר עמה בהיגיון, אלא רק כזו שניתן להרתיעה באמצעות כוח מוחץ ומתמשך. האריה ממשיך לשאוג.